Insights from the Garissa National Climate Outlook Forum

The National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) User Interface Platforms (UIPs) serve as crucial forums for enhancing access, use, and application of seasonal forecasts through Impact-Based Forecasting (IbF). These platforms facilitate dialogue between climate information producers and users, improving co-production processes, defining stakeholder roles, and reinforcing institutional coordination.

In line with these objectives, the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS), International Centre for Humanitarian Affairs (ICHA), World Food Programme (WFP), Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC), and other partners convened a two-day workshop in Garissa. The forum focused on deliberating the March-April-May (MAM) 2025 seasonal forecast and advancing the IbF agenda in Kenya.

Key Objectives of the IbF Workshop

The workshop covered several key objectives, including:

National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) – Director, D.K. Samoel, MBS, Col (Rtd.)

The NDOC Director emphasized the critical role of IbF in informing policy decisions and enhancing disaster preparedness. He highlighted the need for accurate and actionable forecasts from KMD to support timely decision-making and called for strengthened capacity in meteorological services. Furthermore, he stressed the importance of integrating IbF into disaster response planning, particularly for displacement camps in counties like Garissa.

Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) – Osman, Garissa Branch Officer

The KRCS representative reaffirmed the organization’s commitment to integrating IbF into local anticipatory action frameworks. He emphasized the need for collaboration with stakeholders to ensure timely and effective interventions for vulnerable communities.

World Food Programme (WFP) – Peter Otieno, Programme Policy Officer

WFP underscored the importance of Anticipatory Action (AA) in minimizing disaster impacts. The speaker advocated for shifting from a reactive approach to a proactive IbF system that enables early interventions before hazards escalate into disasters.

Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) – Ondiambo, County Director, Garissa

The KMD representative highlighted the indispensable role of accurate and timely weather data in advancing IbF and AA. He discussed KMD’s ongoing efforts to refine forecasting models and ensure that weather predictions translate into actionable impact assessments. He further emphasized the need for continuous stakeholder collaboration to improve the translation of meteorological data into meaningful anticipatory interventions.

Key Discussions and Technical Sessions

Overview of Impact-Based Forecasting in Kenya – Zachary Misiani (ICHA)

This session provided insights into IbF tools, methodologies, and indicators used by organizations such as KMD, Water Resources Authority (WRA), National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), RCMRD, WFP, and county governments. Discussions highlighted:

Participatory Risk Assessment for IbF – James (RCMRD)

In sector-based group discussions, participants identified key predictive indicators for IbF by:

Closing Remarks

International Organization for Migration (IOM)

IOM emphasized its role in evacuation efforts and disaster response. The organization acknowledged the increasing impacts of climate change and extreme weather events, reaffirming its commitment to supporting county governments in disaster preparedness and response.

World Food Programme (WFP)

WFP expressed appreciation for the engagement with key stakeholders in disaster management. The organization highlighted lessons learned from COVID-19 response efforts and underscored the importance of digital tools and continued collaboration for effective AA planning.

National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC)

NDOC commended the workshop’s success in meeting its objectives. A key takeaway was the call for government agencies to strengthen their internal preparedness capabilities rather than relying solely on donor support. The center officially closed the workshop, marking the conclusion of a productive and insightful engagement focused on enhancing disaster preparedness and response mechanisms.

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