Forcast based action in Kitui, Kenya: a case study

Author: Any Instructor

In 2015, models by metrological agencies globally, including the Kenya Metrological Department (KMED), predicted a 90% probability of El Niño conditions1 during the "short rains" of the October, November, December (OND) season. The forecasts predicted above average rainfall in parts of Kenya and an approximate 80% chance of the El Niño conditions lasting into early 2016. The impacts were expected to vary geographically, with some areas experiencing seasonal flooding and others experiencing just good rainfall for agricultural production.